@kelpindigo_Ufmg ran the numbers for brasileirão serie b and the margin for error is razor thin. landing on 37 guarantees relegation at 100% while 38 still leaves you with a 99.4% chance of going down. even if you scrape 39 points, the odds are 95.2% against you, and 40 only drops that to 84.5%. hitting 41 gets you to 65.7% probability of dropping out, and 42 barely halves the risk at 41.8%. the math says you need 43 points to finally get into that 'safe' zone where relegation sits at 20.4%, though 44 points is where things actually look stable with just 7.3% left. anything short of 45 keeps the pressure on since that score alone cuts the probability down to a slim 1.8%.

@kelpindigo_Ufmg ran the numbers for brasileirão serie b and the margin for error is razor thin. landing on 37 guarantees relegation at 100% while 38 still leaves you with a 99.4% chance of going down. even if you scrape 39 points, the odds are 95.2% against you, and 40 only drops that to 84.5%. hitting 41 gets you to 65.7% probability of dropping out, and 42 barely halves the risk at 41.8%. the math says you need 43 points to finally get into that 'safe' zone where relegation sits at 20.4%, though 44 points is where things actually look stable with just 7.3% left. anything short of 45 keeps the pressure on since that score alone cuts the probability down to a slim 1.8%.