@jolyon🇺🇸🇮🇷 The oil market thinks this war is almost over. The physical market says otherwise... Fmr. Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie joins me with a stark assessment: Yes, more oil is coming out of Hormuz than expected, but the real crisis is in the entire downstream chain from refining to distribution, and it's in "dire condition" The Brent futures contract around $100 is what Currie calls a "vibe contract," set by Washington to manage sentiment, while physical Brent trades at $125-130. 7M barrels/day remain shut in, France has fuel shortages compounded by the Rhine being too low for barges, Europe failed to refill gas storage ahead of winter, the Panama Canal cannot move LNG, and the Russian grain corridor is GONE. "Natural gas explodes this winter. Diesel is already at record levels. We are heading into VERY severe global shortages." Futures markets are supposed to signal problems so behavior changes, but when those markets are manipulated to project calm, nobody invests, nobody prepares, and the car drives straight off the cliff. The only question is what happens after the midterms, when the incentive to hold it all together is gone... Thanks for joining me

@jolyon🇺🇸🇮🇷 The oil market thinks this war is almost over. The physical market says otherwise... Fmr. Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie joins me with a stark assessment: Yes, more oil is coming out of Hormuz than expected, but the real crisis is in the entire downstream chain from refining to distribution, and it's in "dire condition" The Brent futures contract around $100 is what Currie calls a "vibe contract," set by Washington to manage sentiment, while physical Brent trades at $125-130. 7M barrels/day remain shut in, France has fuel shortages compounded by the Rhine being too low for barges, Europe failed to refill gas storage ahead of winter, the Panama Canal cannot move LNG, and the Russian grain corridor is GONE. "Natural gas explodes this winter. Diesel is already at record levels. We are heading into VERY severe global shortages." Futures markets are supposed to signal problems so behavior changes, but when those markets are manipulated to project calm, nobody invests, nobody prepares, and the car drives straight off the cliff. The only question is what happens after the midterms, when the incentive to hold it all together is gone... Thanks for joining me