@not_a_charmWhat does a pre-election strike on Iran actually buy you? Two administration officials say the White House went to the Pentagon and requested strike plans ahead of Nov. 3, and CENTCOM is working up options that could be used before Election Day. Nothing is final yet, and Trump's circle of advisers is leaning toward holding off until the vote is over. Here's what the board looks like: gas at $4.37 a gallon, oil near $100, and about 50,000 US troops sitting within striking range of Iran. Four weeks separate voters from deciding who runs Congress. The people who back hitting Iran before the vote will tell you straight up it won't reopen the Strait of Hormuz and it won't drag fuel costs down before ballots get cast. Government energy data runs the other way, showing oil tends to climb when strikes pick back up after a pause. And a limited strike could leave Iranian tanker attacks going while burning through interceptor supplies. So the trade is a price spike timed to land right as people vote, fewer interceptors left, and Iran still taking shots at tankers. If strikes happen regardless, waiting until after Nov. 3 is the smarter play. Source: The Atlantic / Writer: Daniel

@not_a_charmWhat does a pre-election strike on Iran actually buy you? Two administration officials say the White House went to the Pentagon and requested strike plans ahead of Nov. 3, and CENTCOM is working up options that could be used before Election Day. Nothing is final yet, and Trump's circle of advisers is leaning toward holding off until the vote is over. Here's what the board looks like: gas at $4.37 a gallon, oil near $100, and about 50,000 US troops sitting within striking range of Iran. Four weeks separate voters from deciding who runs Congress. The people who back hitting Iran before the vote will tell you straight up it won't reopen the Strait of Hormuz and it won't drag fuel costs down before ballots get cast. Government energy data runs the other way, showing oil tends to climb when strikes pick back up after a pause. And a limited strike could leave Iranian tanker attacks going while burning through interceptor supplies. So the trade is a price spike timed to land right as people vote, fewer interceptors left, and Iran still taking shots at tankers. If strikes happen regardless, waiting until after Nov. 3 is the smarter play. Source: The Atlantic / Writer: Daniel